Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 18.090283 21.855567 26.031677 30.982187 36.664659 42.957142 50.424958
2025-05-04 12.962072 17.959559 24.101624 32.093178 42.094195 54.069406 69.353295
2025-05-11 9.976714 15.414668 22.651922 32.744516 46.182252 63.168673 85.935218
2025-05-18 7.723835 13.177160 20.967708 32.500399 48.672276 70.038320 99.814096
2025-05-25 5.910912 11.108305 19.053426 31.485074 49.753982 74.852845 111.036523
2025-06-01 4.720364 9.710734 17.827866 31.172189 51.599967 80.618731 123.664045
2025-06-08 3.631233 8.218194 16.173632 29.919827 51.827559 83.972883 132.972928
2025-06-15 3.130151 7.664244 15.947061 30.833326 55.310467 92.124872 149.407123
2025-06-22 2.468498 6.634361 14.717495 29.908819 55.772978 95.745992 159.349086
2025-06-29 2.173650 6.292979 14.672463 30.969945 59.456269 104.382730 177.055674
2025-07-06 1.639824 5.271810 13.157760 29.222202 58.298671 105.390412 183.214228
2025-07-13 1.458305 5.043604 13.182951 30.285465 61.960922 114.156735 201.614817
2025-07-20 1.256114 4.741102 13.077848 31.232576 65.748215 123.742810 222.428649
2025-07-27 1.084255 4.474672 13.021455 32.298360 69.887523 134.235741 245.351066
2025-08-03 0.915399 4.155289 12.781770 32.950244 73.296324 143.663494 266.952185
2025-08-10 0.732011 3.712384 12.156714 32.704745 74.978489 150.213282 284.109235
2025-08-17 0.554034 3.198000 11.236630 31.684256 75.057326 153.949314 296.722108
2025-08-24 0.437486 2.850580 10.672987 31.369776 76.460053 160.034528 313.464874
2025-08-31 0.319329 2.417451 9.761961 30.110996 75.828862 162.403229 323.935194
2025-09-07 0.275493 2.303236 9.760356 31.029181 79.734034 173.187412 349.284771
2025-09-14 0.203454 1.986684 9.054211 30.099931 79.662157 176.599068 361.885032
2025-09-21 0.177758 1.915414 9.126702 31.166498 83.942701 188.339782 389.563527
2025-09-28 0.119383 1.573230 8.179521 29.409773 81.887031 187.930346 395.559931